Djokovic v Berrettini
And another major tournament comes to an end. Thank you to everyone who has read along or got in touch across the course of what has been a very busy fortnight.
There is only one man capable of stopping Novak Djokovic from continuing his quest of the Golden Slam, and that is Italian Matteo Berrettini. Before looking at the match bets to finish the tournament, a quick look at the outright market and results that will eventuate depending on the outcome today.
Novak Djokovic Win = -2 units Matteo Berrettini Win = +2 units
Not the best outcome considering the fortnight, but I also did feel it was important to not be over-exposed when playing around Djokovic. It would have been great for Medvedev and Rublev to have made their way to the semi-finals as heavy favourites, however, them both losing from 2 sets to 1 up made it difficult to work around too much in the semi-finals.
I will remove the unmatched 1 unit stake in the outright market on Novak Djokovic at $4, as given the dominance of Novak it is likely to require him being 2 sets to 0 and a break down, or down in a tiebreak where Berrettini is trying to close out the match.
Onto the match itself, and I am absolutely fascinated to see how the early stage of this match plays out. Out of the entire grass season played by Berrettini, the one match to date where he has looked genuinely nervy in patches was the final at Queens, where he defeated Cam Norrie in 3 sets. You could make a case that his other moment of difficulty was early in set 3 against Felix Auger Aliassime in the quarter-final, however, his serve held up incredibly well when needed.
He is serving big, and hitting big, taking control of the situation and being as assertive as he can. The real question in this match-up is whether Berrettini can keep Novak from finding a way to get the ball onto the backhand of the Italian consistently?
Whilst it is perfectly understandable for Berrettini to be on the nervous side in his first major final, it is also worth acknowledging the struggles of Novak in the first two sets of the Roland Garros final. At this stage of his career, he has made it abundantly clear that winning these tournaments is the primary goal. Whilst there will be some nerves there, it is hard to see it being in any way overwhelming given his track record at the highest level. Whilst there was some vulnerability against Denis Shapovalov, he still found a way to escape in straight sets in the semi-final.
This shapes up to be a fascinating match, and another one that is likely to depend on whether Berrettini, and to a lesser extent Djokovic, can find their first serves when under pressure. Just a small play, however, I will be making a 1 unit selection on the total games going over 38.5 games.
Berrettini has the game to pressure Novak, especially with a serve bigger than Shapovalov, who held comfortably for long periods of that semi-final. Nerves will be at play, which drops this staking, however, it still looks to be worth a small play as 4 sets should see this clear, as we saw at Roland Garros in their quarter-final.
Thanks again for following along this fortnight.
BACK — 1 unit total games over 38.5 (recorded at $1.94)